And so we've ended up pretty much where we started, but with a small twist. The Greens and NDP are up, according to the last set of polls, and the Conservatives and Liberals down. We all know that the Conservatives will get the most seats, that the Liberals will come in a somewhat disappointing second, and the NDP will produce a surprisingly strong third.
What we don't know is exactly how that will translate into seats, and this time around it looks like some small shifts in voting could lead to a very different government tomorrow morning. Specifically, the best estimates we have make it look that the Liberals and NDP, in combination, may end the evening within a couple of seats of the Conservatives. Either the next Parliament will look very much like the last, or we'll have a Liberal-NDP coalition.
A coalition would make all sorts of sense for both Dion and Layton. For Dion, it will save his political career--after all, he gets to be PM. For Layton, it gets the NDP in government and that positions the federal NDP to have a better shot in the future. In addition, there's a good chance in that scenario that Harper will choose to resign--he's not interested in being Leader of the Opposition--and with no obvious successor the Conservatives might get into some serious infighting as a result.
I can think of one or two reasons why the Liberals might not go for such a deal. One is that they think it's not worth the potential strengthening of the NDP--but I think the risk there is relatively low. It's worth remembering back in the 1980s that something similar happened here in Ontario, when David Peterson and Bob Rae cut a deal to take government away from the Conservatives. Now, in the end that deal led to Rae becoming Premier, but only because Peterson goofed later on. In the short term it led to a Liberal majority.
The second is that the next few years might not be a period of time where you want to be the guy in charge.
All that aside, though, we won't know until tomorrow whether this is even possible. There are a huge number of people who are undecided or soft in their support out there voting today, and the stock market is booming after weeks of uncertainty. I really don't know if that's going to move the polls (if it does it will probably help Harper).
If I had to bet, I'd bet on a Conservative minority--but I won't be shocked to wake up tomorrow to a Liberal-NDP coalition or a Conservative majority.