When John Kerry made his speech accepting the Democratic nomination for president on Thursday night he had to reach two constituencies. The first of these is the swing voters and for this he needed to strike certain notes and play on certain themes. And most of all he had to be heard above the din of the conventional media wisdom that he had no real support within his own party and no real platform other than to "boot Bush". On this score I give him a double -- he's on base but he needs more than a sacrifice fly to come home.
The other constituency Kerry had to target is the delegates who were on the convention floor. These are the people who now go back to their own communities to do the hard work of getting Kerry and other Democrats elected. They needed to leave the hall with the passion and enthusiasm to fight on. Based on the C-Span coverage I saw I'd credit him with a triple on this score. The reaction to his speech indicated that the troops have rallied behind him but a serious error on the bases could still see him called out at the plate.
Much of what Kerry said didn't resonate with me, but it wasn't supposed to. I'm not American and he wasn't speaking to me. But it resonated deeply when he described the upcoming election as the most important in our lifetime. On that much we agree.
A continued surge in Democratic support could see both the White House and control of the Senate change hands but given the small number of seats in the House of Representatives that are up for grabs, control of that house will remain with the Republicans. If Democratic support falls flat then the GOP would undoubtedly retain control over the executive and both houses in the legislative branch. Given four more years to pack the courts, it would allow the Republicans to solidify control of all three branches of government.
That would entrench a governing philosophy that isn't just a competing vision for the United States but a repudiation of the ideals on which that nation was founded, ideals which are difficult enough to live up to with honest effort but which have served Bush only as a cover story to present to a smug and cynical media while his actions contradict them.
Those who currently control the Republican party have made it clear what kind of country they want: one where dissent is treason and challenging authority is terrorism; one where everything from science to civil rights is fair game to be politicized in the pursuit of power; one where freedom is defended rhetorically while being increasingly denied to its own citizens; one where might makes right; one where the environment, the economy and even the future will be put at risk to benefit the wealthy and powerful.
Yes, I think the stakes are that high. And so, too, do the people who oppose Bush and support Kerry. That's why the infamous "circular firing squad", the tendency for different factions within the Democratic party to squabble among themselves and weaken their own cause, appears to have been abandoned for this election season in favour of a united party with a determination to stick together and win. They can always fight among themselves later and probably will.
If Kerry makes constant reference to his own military service and to military issues in general, it's because the US is at war. The Bush campaign has given every indication of making national security and "steady, decisive leadership" key issues and the Republicans, rightly or wrongly, benefit from the conventional wisdom that they're stronger on these issues. If Kerry talks about the War on Terror™ it's because Bush and a compliant media have spent three years drumming that meme into the public consciousness.
If the Democrats wrap themselves in the flag at every opportunity it's because they expect to have their patriotism challenged at every turn from now until Nov. 2. And if they speak of faith and God more than they otherwise would, it's because Bush and the Republicans have made faith a central issue and have attempted to redefine it in their own image.
It looks to me like the Democrats have made a collective decision to do what it takes to win. If it means co-opting Republican rhetoric and transforming Republican symbols to their own purpose, so be it. I wish them luck.
I'd expect to find lots to criticize in a Kerry administration and not least because he'd face a hostile House and lots of pressure to be hawkish and aggressive on the world stage in defence of American interests. But to contend that there's no substantial difference between the Bush Republicans and the Kerry Democrats, as I've seen some do, is to ignore everything that the last three and a half years has taught us. Look at the policies of the Clinton administration, consider that Clinton was hardly the most liberal of Democrats, then re-examine George Bush's record. If a Kerry victory isn't a victory for hope, it would at least give hope a little room to breathe and a little time to regroup.
I expect a close election in November but I'm thinking Bush and company will go down to defeat. Aside from uniting the Democrats, which is no mean feat in itself, they've made too many mistakes and too many of those can still come back to haunt them between now and the election. But a Bush defeat won't be a final defeat for the forces behind him. They have too much power of their own and too much invested in the infrastructure of think tanks and media outlets that allow them to blare their talking points unceasingly day in and day out. They've become experts at controlling the terms of the public debate. A defeat at the polls may represent a setback for them, but they'll be back. It doesn't end with Bush.
