When Prime Minister Stephen Harper announced that he intended to meet with the three opposition leaders before deciding whether to call a federal election, Bloc Québécois leader Gilles Duceppe let it be known that he couldn't possibly meet until Sept. 5th at the earliest. There was speculation (scroll down into the comments) that Duceppe was being cute, knowing that the Governor General was leaving that day for Beijing to attend the Paralympics and wouldn't return until Sept. 10th. This wouldn't make it impossible for Harper to call his election before the GG's return but it would certainly cast attention on his impatience to have to press the Chief Justice into service to stand in for her. And much to Harper's chagrin, I'm sure, calling an election is something our constitution prevents a Prime Minister from doing all on his own (though it appears that Harper intends to come as close as is humanly possible).
But whatever Lola Stephen wants, Stephen gets. (I know, I'm mixing up my movie references.)
Additionally, the Prime Minister's Office announced late Tuesday that Ontario Lt. Gov. David Onley will attend the Paralympics in Beijing instead of Gov. Gov. Gen. Michaelle Jean from Sept. 5-10.
Or as Paul Wells put it, the Prime Minister has just grounded the Governor General so that she'll be at his beck and call should he get that sudden hankering to drop a writ. You know how these urges can sneak up on you in the middle of the night.
There's some additional nonsense from Harper in that story about how Dion's proposed Green Shift is so shocking to conservative sensibilities that it's simply impossible for parliament to continue. Which says nothing at all about what would happen should the electorate return essentially the same division of seats we have now, which remains a distinct possibility.
But it's crap anyway. King Stephen wants an election, he wants it when he wants it and he'll be pleased to be attended to by everyone else involved, thank you very much. Though he still hasn't condescended to reveal what the damn hurry is.
Almost immediate update:
I wonder if Jean Chrétien will have more to say since Harper once again appears to be snubbing China. Although this time it's politics and I'm sure in Harper's mind even the Chinese can understand that.
Somewhat less immediate update:
Unless of course he's faking everyone out so he can back down and then act all put upon and wounded when parliament reconvenes and the opposition takes him down on the first confidence vote. Wouldn't that be a hoot? Think anyone would buy it?
Andrew Coyne wrote a great column about this very thing.
http://www.macleans.ca/columnists/article.jsp?content=20080820_65455_65455&id=8
When Harper has lost Coyne.....
Personally, and despite Harper's trial balloon, I don't think an election is imminent. I'm not aware of any recent poll (CTV spin notwithstanding) that shows the Harpies would fare any better in an election held now than they did in the last one. In fact, the indications are the results would be even closer.
That leaves us us with only 3 reasons for Harper to call an election:
1) They have private polls showing something very different from the public polls;
2) They have reason to believe they will fare even worse in a few months than today;
3) They're stupid.
Now (choke, gasp) I could actually be wrong and Stevie calls an election tomorrow. In that case, my money is on #2 or #3.
I'm betting heavily on #2.
In and out scheme, Cadman, pissed off military especially navy, C-484 fubar with the base, U.S. assuming control of Afghanistan so way more casualties likely, compromised food safety, economic downturn coming, Steve - the world's last bushista....
These issues are only just reaching the consciousness of the non-wonks out there, can only get worse for King Steve.
I often think that Coyne is pretty decent as conservative commentators go. He's fairly right wing economically, but he's not willing to eat a whole lot of shit on that basis. He does sew Harper up pretty nicely, doesn't he?
#2 seems likely to me as well, for pretty much Alison's reasons. Plus, Steve may feel that he's gotta be reaching the end of the Liberal financial/organizational disarray window. They have to be able to scrape up some cash eventually, and then there's the public funding.
I go with #2 as well. One of the first things they're going to face when Parliament reconvenes is calls for contempt citations for those Tories who were playing games with the ethics committee. Now, it's summer, and as Alison says, most of the public haven't caught up with this or other scandals. But the opposition are only going to pick up traction and momentum from here on, and Harper has got to be feeling that.
I think he knows the tide is turning. I just wish the Canadian people knew that too, or I hope they catch up fast.
I'm leaning to #2 as well. Or I'm becoming one of those paranoid conspiracy theorists.
What has struck me in the last little while is how very much the Conservative Party wants to kill off discussion of the election financing kerfuffle.
Gary Goodyear pretty much proved with his own peccadillo that if you just say, "whoops, my bad, sorry 'bout that," all would be forgiven--but the Conservative Party, for whatever reason, chose to sue instead.
Then they chose to destroy every committee that dared to look into it--thereby creating the dysfunctional Parliament Harper complains of, chose to have their own members behave in contempt of Parliament, and finally, appear ready to call an election before those contempt charges can be laid.
I thought I understood (in wide generalities) the in-and-out scheme. But now I'm wondering, just what is it the Conservatives are so very desperate to hide?
Then again, it could be that it makes no economic sense to send four ridings to the polls two times in just a few weeks.
Even if #2 is operative, I'm not sure it entirely explains the urgency Harper seems to be displaying. Maybe it's just his control freakish nature tho', unwilling to allow his government to be brought down by the opposition and willing to take whatever heat may come from killing it himself rather than allowing that to happen.