Well, there's plenty of sound and fury going on in Canadian politics right now. But in the larger view, none of what's happening here right now is likely to make that much difference in the longer term. The Cons are busily doing what they always do—demonstrate corruption, dishonesty, and their utter contempt for the concerns of real people or of the day after next quarter. Specifically, they're licking US boot, pushing a police state agenda and doing their best to kill the environment for their corporate masters. At least one of them has apparently been taking major bribes. So what else is new? Before they got in and after they're gone we are likely to have Liberals, who will, with slightly greater subtlety, lick US boot, push a police state agenda, and do their best to kill the environment for their corporate masters. Some of them will probably take bribes. In short, as a country, we're behaving like a typical second string corporatist power—we represent the status quo in the same way a number of other countries do. There's nothing interesting about our politics, nothing worldchanging, and nothing that will matter much when the US is no longer the world's great power. We've chosen not to matter.
The Venezuelans have chosen to matter.
A country with roughly our population but way less money (yeah, they've got oil—so do we), they're making changes that we can be pretty confident must have something going for them or the media wouldn't be making up so much trash-talk. And it looks to me as if they're headed for the next level.
I've been watching Venezuela, “el proceso”, and Hugo Chavez for a few years now—roughly since the coup. I've noticed a couple of things that seem relevant for right now. The first thing Chavez did was bring in the new constitution, which seemed on the surface like it was no big deal. Lots of repressive countries have beautiful constitutions, dead documents never invoked in real political life that the public know nothing of. But Chavez seems to have intended all along to use that constitution as a pry bar to open the doors for change. He had masses of copies printed so everyone would know what it said, and then invoked it to back his reforms, making them far harder to stop. Now we have a bunch of constitutional amendments about to be voted on, near the beginning of Chavez' new mandate.
The second point that I've noticed is Chavez's political fighting style. He has a tendency to give his opponents enough rope, even invite attack, wait until they overstep their boundaries, and whack them good once they've overextended themselves. The opposition seems determined to create a crisis over the constitution vote—a very predictable move on their part.
There are a lot of constitutional changes in this package. Many were advanced by Chavez himself, others were added into the package by the legislature. Some don't seem important. Others aren't that great—I'm not wild keen about the change of the presidential term from six to seven years, or the change to require more signatures to trigger recall votes. The former was Chavez's, the latter wasn't. But the key amendments are about communal power and the nature of property. The new version constitution will specify that property can be other than just private or state, that there can be communal property, co-operatively owned property, mixed property. The amendments don't dictate or create socialism, but they certainly make it legally workable. So on one hand, they create the conditions for further, radical social change.
On the other, because of this they force the hand of the elite opposition. The opposition (and the US, it turns out) can't let this go by. They can't wait until the time is right to destabilize Chavez—they have to do it now, while he's strong. And because he is strong, and they really don't have the numbers in public support to block him, to do anything they'll clearly have to go outside the law. And since he's quite clearly ready for this, I'd say the chances are good that not too long after the vote this weekend, the opposition will have suffered a serious defeat or three. And then over the next few years, we may see some serious progressive change in Venezuela, stuff of a far more fundamental nature than all the social programs and even the early stages of the co-ops and communal councils. We may see, for the first time ever, some kind of socialistic political economy developing, in a democracy, without anyone being able to crush it or start a civil war. I like this prospect. Many, even on the moderate left, may think it goes too far. But it's being done democratically, and at least the Venezuelans are doing something significant instead of resigning themselves to the same old crap.
"We may see, for the first time ever, some kind of socialistic political economy developing, in a democracy, without anyone being able to crush it or start a civil war. I like this prospect."
I like the prospect too! Playing it safe hasn't amounted to much (Doer, Calvert, Harcourt, Rae, etc)
Check out the just-intercepted CIA memo.
Well, exactly, Dr. Dawg. This kind of thing is to be expected and it's basically been well known all along that the US is interfering, although the memo makes it clear that they're much more active and more willing to engage in illegal activity than a lot of people have wanted to believe.
But the very fact that the memo has been made public, not after dirty deeds have been done, but at a critical point in the campaign, adds to my sense that the Chavistas are well aware of what they're dealing with and have plans to handle it. This, IMO, is the way you beat these bastards--you don't water down your words and deeds and hope they leave you alone, because they won't. You keep pushing, keep them off balance, and make sure the crisis points happen when *you* decide they're going to happen rather than when your opponents are good and ready to make them happen.
this leads me to speculate on whether he will compromise on the length of the presidential term, thereby giving the opposition "enough rope".
great analysis, thanks.